Jarvis Summers shoots during a game earlier this season. Photo: Tyler Jackson, The Daily Mississippian.
Ole Miss’ hopes for a second straight NCAA tournament appearance are looking slim. At 16-9 and lacking a defining win, the Rebels are fading from the bubble talk.
Ole Miss dropped two road games last week, neither of which was a bad individual loss – Ole Miss was was a three-point underdog in both games. But looking at the big picture, Ole Miss couldn’t afford to drop both games to teams hovering around the 100 mark in RPI.
Andy Kennedy’s team doesn’t have a marquee win, which would be fine if Ole Miss hadn’t piled up all of these close losses. But with the biggest win coming against fellow bubble team Missouri, Ole Miss doesn’t have anything to counter the losses.
But this week provides an entrance. With the top two Southeastern Conference teams and the only tournament locks in the conference coming to Oxford this week, Ole Miss could bust down the barrier in front of them.
The best part of this opportunity is that both games are in the Tad Smith Coliseum, where Ole Miss has been far superior than the road Rebels. At home in SEC play, Ole Miss is scoring 80.2 points per game, while on the road that number dips more than 13 points to 66.9.
Ole Miss’ best three games — a loss to Oregon and wins over LSU and Missouri — came in Oxford. A good omen for the upcoming week.
But, the bad part is the opponents coming to town are the class of the conference. Florida is being called the best team in the nation, after it went to Kentucky and took down the Wildcats. For Kentucky, that was its only loss by more than five points, and the Wildcats have won three straight road games.
Also, the matchup on the boards will be a major struggle for Ole Miss. Kentucky leads the SEC in rebounding percentage, while Florida sits in third; Ole Miss is second to last. In the last meeting with Kentucky, the Wildcats had more offensive rebounds than Ole Miss did defensive rebounds.
Big man Aaron Jones has struggled and was replaced in the starting lineup by freshman Dwight Coleby in the last game against Georgia. Kennedy has been searching for a combination in the post. He has tried out Jones and Coleby, as well as Sebastian Saiz, Demarco Cox and Anthony Perez. But nothing has fixed the problem.
Another major issue for Ole Miss is the struggles of Jarvis Summers. The second leading scorer for the Rebels has averaged just 11.8 points on 36.2 percent shooting. Defenses have been making life more difficult for Summers by switching on screens, which cuts off his driving lanes. Summers needs to heat up for Ole Miss to have any chance this week.
The other theme of last week was the racking up of close losses. Ole Miss lost both games on the final possession. The Rebels have lost six games by five points or less. But the close games have gone both ways; Ole Miss has seven wins by five points or less.
Maybe all the close games mean that Ole Miss will be at least close in closing minutes against Florida and Kentucky. If that’s the case, Ole Miss has to make the plays, or get a defensive stop on the last possession, to have any hope for an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament.
For continuing coverage of Ole Miss men’s basketball, follow @Tyler_RSR and @thedm_sports on Twitter.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
