Ole Miss will travel to play in the Octagon of Doom Thursday, as the take on Kansas State in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. on ESPN2.
Kansas State has not been a good team offensively all year. They have struggled to score due in part to terrible shooting, despite having played a fairly easy schedule.
The Wildcats are shooting 26.6 percent on threes, ranking 333rd in the country. Small forward Shane Southwell is shooting just 19 percent this year, but last year, he shot 43.6 percent. Also, point guard Will Spradling is down to 30 percent this season; he shot 35.9 percent last year.
The Wildcats are 4-0 when they shoot above 40 percent, but 0-3 when they are under 40 percent.
Look for Ole Miss to play a lot of 2-3 zone in this game until Kansas State proves they can shoot Ole Miss out of it. The Rebels interior has been excellent at denying opponents that get to the rim – they are a top five shot blocking team in Division I – so the best way to beat the Ole Miss zone has been to space the floor with three point shooters.
Kansas State is also bad in transition scoring .937 points per possession in transition opportunities, ranking 283rd, per Synergy Sports. Defensively, Ole Miss has stopped opponents transition game this season holding them to .892 points per possession. For Ole Miss, 24.2 percent of defensive possessions are in transition, the ninth highest rate in Division I. This is due to Ole Miss using their 2-2-1 three-quarters court press frequently, which opens up the floor if teams can beat it with passes over the top.
Look for Kansas State to slow the game down and play in the half court. The Wildcats are one of the slowest teams in the country. They average 66.47 possessions per game, 299th in Division I. Ole Miss is 66th in pace, averaging 72.76 possessions per game. Kansas State slows it down because their half court defense has been one of the best in the country, allowing .741 points per possession.
The Wildcats have the No. 1 defense against spot up opportunities, as opponents have made just 20 of 104 shots on spot up opportunities.
Unlike Ole Miss, Kansas State does not swat shots at a high rate. Despite starting three players at 6-foot-7, Kansas State is second to last in the Big 12 in block percentage at 6.75, which is 279th in the country.
Looking at overall efficiency, Ole Miss is better than Kansas State in offensive rating (112.7 to 99.2) and defensive rating (91.4 to 92.5). The two teams have similar strength of schedules so far this season, Ole Miss at 259 and Kansas State at 265.
Kansas State hasn’t beaten anyone notable, and the only decent teams they have played, Georgetown and Charlotte, resulted in losses. They also lost their home opener to Northern Colorado of Greeley, Colo.
The Wildcats offense has been dreadful this year. They cannot shoot ball, however they have the potential, based on past seasons, to knock down a lot more shots. Ole Miss should continue their defensive dominance against Kansas State, as the Rebels do a terrific job of contesting shots. So unless Southwell and Spradling turn their seasons around, expect Kansas State to struggle to score.
Which leaves the question of how well will Ole Miss score in the half court against Kansas State? Derrick Millinghaus will look to establish some fast break opportunities, but Kansas State will be the most formidable foe for grinding the game down.
Graphic by Tyler Bischoff | The Daily Mississippian
Other notes
– Both Kansas State and Ole Miss saw their 2012-13 seasons come to an end in the NCAA Tournament at the hands of the mighty La Salle Explorers in Kansas City.
– Shooting guard Marcus Foster is seventh in the Big 12 in usage rate at 25.32 percent. That is the highest usage rate of any freshman in the Big 12. For comparison, Marshall Henderson’s usage rate is at 32.22 percent.
– Reserve guard Nigel Johnson is third in the Big 12 in steal percentage at 3.22, but he is also ninth in the Big 12 in turnover percentage at 20.57. Starting big man, D.J. Johnson is fifth in the Big 12 in turnover percentage at 24.16. As a team, Kansas State is turning the ball over on 17.34 percentage of possessions.
– Kansas State is forcing their opponents into a turnover on 18.14 percent of possessions.
– Kansas State is second to last in the Big 12 in block percentage at 6.75, good news for Derrick Millinghaus.
– Ole Miss has four players in the top 10 of the SEC in block percentage. Aaron Jones (2nd) Anthony Perez (5th) Sebastian Saiz (8th) Demarco Cox (9th)
– Sebastian Saiz is also eighth in the conference in rebounding percentage.
– LaDarius White is the only Rebel with more shots (35) than points (30).
For continuing coverage of Ole Miss men’s basketball, follow @Tyler_RSR and @thedm_sports on Twitter.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
