Ole Miss (6-1) comes off of its first loss of the season – a 61-58 defeat at Kansas State – and returns home to host 13th-ranked Oregon (7-0) Sunday. Tipoff from Tad Smith Coliseum is set for 4 p.m., and the game will be televised by ESPNU.
The Ducks are everything Kansas State was not. Oregon averages 88 points per game; they play at a faster pace, 70.84 possessions per game. (Ole Miss is averaging 71.91 possessions per game.) And they shoot really well.
Six Ducks have a three-point percentage over 35 and take at least two threes per game. Last year, only two Rebels shot over 35 percent. Jason Calliste, who comes off of the bench, leads Oregon by knocking down 52.6 percent of his threes.
But Jospeh Young is the top offensive option for the Ducks. He averages 20.3 points per game, while shooting 42.4 percent from beyond the arc. Young is the leader of everything Oregon does well – three point shooting, transition offense and getting to the free throw line.
As a team, Oregon is second in the Pac-12 in three-point shooting at 41.3 percent, but they are even better in transition, ranking second in the country in transition efficiency, scoring 1.37 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports. They run off of steals, missed shots and even on made baskets.
Young has been the most used and most efficient Duck in transition. He is scoring 1.55 points per possession in transition and shooting 70.4 percent. He’s not afraid to pull up for threes and has excelled at finishing near the hoop.
He draws a foul on 31.6 percent of his transition opportunities; for the season, he has drawn 30 fouls and converted six and-ones. Oregon, as a team, gets to the free throw line 33 times per game, tops in the Pac-12.
All of the made threes and free throws have led Oregon to be one of the most efficient offenses in the NCAA. They are fourth in the country in points per possession at 1.098. They lead the country in points per shot at 1.63.
This will be the best offense Ole Miss has faced all season.
Graphic by Tyler Bischoff | The Daily Mississippian
Oregon starts a traditional center, but the five Ducks with the most minutes are perimeter players – four guards and stretch forward Mike Moser. Moser shoots the second most threes on the team, 4.29 per game, and makes 36.7 percent of them.
This smaller lineup will be a better matchup for Derrick Millinghaus and Marshall Henderson, who struggled against Kansas State’s grind-it-out defense. (They combined to shoot 7 of 28.)
But this will be the first time Andy Kennedy will have to match another team’s lineup. If Kennedy wants to play small with Oregon expect to see four guards on the court together. After a head-to-head collision in the Kansas State game, Anthony Perez could be an important piece to matchup with Oregon with his size and ability to play inside and out, assuming he is healthy.
But if Kennedy wants to force Oregon to matchup with his lineup, then expect to see a lot of Demarco Cox and Aaron Jones.
Playing both big men a lot will lead to offensive rebounds and block shots, but will allow Oregon to run the floor from all five spots on the floor, leaving Jones and Cox behind.
One key to slowing down Oregon’s offense will be forcing them to take jump shots off the dribble. Ole Miss needs to run shooters off the three-point line.
In catch and shoot situations, Oregon is scoring 1.30 points per possession and shooting 46 percent. But when forced into jump shots off the dribble, their efficiency plummets to .58 points per possession and 28 percent shooting.
More Notes
– Point guard Jonathan Loyd leads the Oregon fast break very well. He has 16 assists in transition, half of which have led to three pointers.
– Loyd is 5-foot-8, meaning Derrick Millinghaus will have a height advantage, being listed at 5-foot-10.
– Damyean Dotson has also been efficient in transition, scoring 1.41 points per possession.
– Elgin Cook has drawn 29 fouls, second most for Oregon, and has converted 6 and-ones.
– Cook is getting to the free throw line 6.43 times per game, eighth most in the Pac-12; Joseph Young is third in the conference at 7.86 attempts per game.
– Oregon has made 74.5 percent of their free throws, second best in the Pac-12.
– Ole Miss has made 64.3 percent of their free throws, 296th in Division I.
– Ole Miss’ opponents have made 62.9 percent of their free throws.
– Two Ducks are serving nine-game suspensions to start the season. (Ole Miss is game number eight.) Likely starting point guard Dominic Artis and backup big man Ben Carter were suspended for selling their sneakers.
– This will be Oregon’s first road game of the year. “Everybody that I’ve talked to in the Southeastern Conference says it’s a hard place to play,” head coach Dana Altman told OregonLive.com
– Oregon had a full week off, as their last game was an 82-61 win over Cal Poly last Sunday.
– Defensively, Oregon will vary their scheme. Similar to Ole Miss, they will mix between man-to-man, zone and full court pressure.
– Oregon is only getting 2.29 shots blocked per game. Ole Miss blocked nine shots against Kansas State, and averages 8.43 per game, fourth in the NCAA.
– Oregon’s strength of schedule is at 155 this year; Ole Miss is at 184.
For continuing coverage of Ole Miss men’s basketball, follow @Tyler_RSR and @thedm_sports on Twitter.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
