Ole Miss’ 6-5 victory over Auburn Sunday moved them on step closer to returning June baseball to Swayze Stadium. The question for the Rebels is, how many more steps do they need to take?
Ole Miss, as of Sunday night, has the fifth-best RPI in the country, but fourth-best in the SEC behind Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Ole Miss has an extremely good series win over Louisville who is No. 2 in the RPI. The Rebels currently have eight top-50 RPI wins, and Tennessee looms at No. 54 in the RPI, which could provide Ole Miss with two more top-50 wins. Ole Miss also has five wins over top-25 teams in the RPI.
Ole Miss has dominated non-conference opponents, as they are 10-1 in midweek competition and won 11 of 12 games on weekends versus non-conference opponents in route to a 21-2 non-conference record with three games remaining outside of the conference slate. The three games are against Mississippi State on Tuesday night, who boasts a 25 RPI. A win over the Bulldogs would split the season series between the Ole Miss and the Bulldogs, as Mississippi State took two from the Rebels earlier this month in Starkville. The other two are against University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Arkansas State, respectively. Both teams are sub-100 RPI teams; so for Ole Miss’ hosting chances, it’d be advisable not to lose either of those games.
Another thing that Ole Miss has going in its favor is that it has zero sub-100 RPI losses on the season. Ole Miss’ worst loss of the year is against No. 54 Tennessee. Outside of the lone loss to the Volunteers, Ole Miss is 23-0 against Sub 50 RPI teams.
Ole Miss’ strength of schedule is currently six, and their non-conference strength of schedule is 25. Ole Miss’ non-conference RPI is two.
Every metric points to Ole Miss hosting a regional if the season ended today. Reality is, however, Ole Miss has to win at least 16 conference games to host a regional in Oxford come the first weekend of June, and they may have to win more than that.
There have been 12 teams in the SEC to finish 16-14 in conference play since 2004. Two of them hosted regionals. One of them was Ole Miss in 2007. The Rebels had an RPI of eight going into Selection Sunday eight years ago. The other was Mississippi State in 2013. The Bulldogs had a RPI of 10 going into Selection Sunday in 2013.
There is more precedent for teams that go 17-13 in SEC play to host regionals. There have been 10 teams that have finished with 17 wins in SEC play since 2004, and six of those teams hosted regionals. To be fair, one of the four that didn’t was Arkansas last year, and Arkansas’ RPI was around 49 when selection for regionals came about. The other two recent examples are South Carolina in 2013, whose RPI was 11 at the time of selection, and Vanderbilt in 2014 whose RPI was eight. Evidence points towards teams with top-10 RPIs and a winning conference record hosting regionals.
Ole Miss’ 12 remaining conference games are against all top-50 teams with them facing No. 14 LSU, No. 28 Georgia, No. 39 Kentucky and No. 4 Texas A&M. The Rebels’ upcoming competition provides them with ample opportunities to garner quality league wins to improve their resumé.
I know that’s a lot of numbers to throw at you, but to sum it all up, Ole Miss’ next four SEC series are vitally important, and it starts on Thursday night against the Bayou Bengals. If the Rebels were able to finish 6-6 in SEC play (assuming no weird losses to Pine Bluff or Arkansas State) their RPI would stay relatively stable, and likely in the top 10. It would be extremely hard to keep a 39- or 40-win SEC team with a top-10 RPI and 16 league wins from hosting a regional.
It would be virtually impossible for the NCAA to keep a regional from Oxford if Ole Miss finished with 17 league wins, as that would involve winning at bare minimum one more top-25 RPI game and seven more top-50 RPI wins, giving Ole Miss at bare minimum 15 top-50 wins.
Again, the numbers get complicated at times. The RPI at the end of the day is a complex mathematical algorithm, but in totality it’s simple. If Ole Miss wins six more SEC games, it’s very likely they’ll be playing post-season baseball at OU-Stadium. If Ole Miss wins seven, it’s all but guaranteed.
