ATLANTA – Ole Miss and Mississippi State will meet one more time, as the 14-seeded Bulldogs knocked off Vanderbilt Wednesday night to set up round three with Ole Miss (18-13, 9-9 SEC).
“If State wins tonight and we have the opportunity to play them, then it would be their Super Bowl in that they could go ahead and put us out of our misery,” head coach Andy Kennedy said prior to the Mississippi State win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday.
The win snapped the Bulldogs (14-18, 3-15) 13-game losing streak, and set up the rivalry for one more time the season.
“We have been waiting to play them since they beat us the first time,” Mississippi State’s Roquez Johnson said after beating Vanderbilt.
MSU explodes vs Vandy, could be problematic for Ole Miss
Mississippi State, the least efficient offense in the SEC, had its best offensive performance of the season against Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs had their highest field goal percentage of the season at 59.3 percent; in SEC play Mississippi State shot 42.2 percent.
That hot shooting turned into 82 points, tied for the most Mississippi State has scored in an SEC game this season. In SEC games Mississippi State averaged 64.7 points.
Mississippi State’s efficiency was as good as it has been all season. The Bulldogs points per possession was 1.22 against the Commodores; they average .94 points per possession in conference games this year.
Vanderbilt tried to play some 2-3 zone against Mississippi State, but Fred Thomas was 4 of 7 on threes and managed to shoot Vanderbilt out of the zone. Ole Miss plays the most zone defense in the SEC, so a hot shooting Mississippi State could be trouble for Ole Miss.
“So we got to find a way to deal with all their changing defenses. They’ll play a 2-3. They will play a 1-3-1. They will play some man-to-man. So we got to get into a flow against Ole Miss and not become stagnant on the offensive end.”
The way Mississippi State got in flow against Vanderbilt was by getting Thomas to knock down threes, but also by pounding the ball inside. The Bulldogs had 46 points in the paint. Starting big men Roquez Johnson and Gavin Ware combined for 39 points on 13 of 18 shooting.
Mississippi State is the second most efficient team in the SEC in post up offense. The Bulldogs score .90 points per possession and shoot 51.9 percent when posting up, tops in the SEC.
Ware is the SEC leader in post up efficiency as he scores 1.09 point per post up and shoots 61.1 percent. Ole Miss is allowing opponents to score .79 points per post up, 10th best in the SEC.
For comparison, Ole Miss is the worst post up team in the SEC, as the Rebels score just .55 points per possession and shoot 25.8 percent on post ups this season.
In the two previous meeting this season, Roquez Johnson was Mississippi State’s best player. He scored 20 points on 7 of 11 shooting in the Bulldogs win, then shot 5 of 11 for 13 points in the Rebels win.
Point Spread
Ole Miss opened as seven-point favorite over Mississippi State, per VegasInsider.com. Within the first hour of the line being available, Ole Miss was bet up to an eight-point favorite. In SEC games this season, Ole Miss is 9-1 when favored to win and 0-8 when the underdog. That lone loss as a favorite came when Ole Miss lost to Mississippi State sans Marshall Henderson. Mississippi State has only been favored in one SEC game all season, which resulted in a loss to South Carolina. But Mississippi State was a 7-point underdog against Vanderbilt last night, but won by 14 points.
Update 11:55 CDT: Ole Miss has been bet up to a nine-point favorite and the over/under is at 145.5 points.
Notes
This will be the first meeting between Ole Miss and Mississippi State since the Rick Ray/Marshall Henderson incident, which you can see here.
The game will start 25 minutes after Alabama and LSU finish. That game starts at 6 p.m. CDT. Last night, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt were in the same time slot that Ole Miss is in tonight and that game started just after 8:30 p.m. CDT, but it was over before 10:30 p.m. CDT.
In Mississippi State’s upset over Ole Miss earlier in the season, Ray used a 1-3-1 halfcourt defense that completely stifled the Ole Miss offense. That game was played during Henderson’s suspension, and with him back, it is unlikely that Ray will use that zone very much.
Mississippi State and Ole Miss are two of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC. Ole Miss has especially struggled on the defensive glass, but the Rebels did perform against the Bulldogs this season. Ole Miss grabbed 62 defensive rebounds to Mississippi State’s 19 offensive rebounds. So, Ole Miss has grabbed 76 percent of Mississippi State’s missed shots. In SEC play, Ole Miss has grabbed just 65 percent of opponents’ missed shots.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
