Photo By Ignacio Murillo | The Daily Mississippian
Ole Miss travels to the unfriendly confines of Starkville, as the Rebels will play their first road game in the Southeastern Conference this season against Mississippi State today.
The Rebels (10-4, 1-0 SEC) are coming off a win over Auburn Thursday, while the Bulldogs (10-4, 0-1 SEC) lost their conference opener at Kentucky Wednesday.
Mississippi State is 8-1 at home this season; their only loss came to TCU, 71-61, as a part of the Big 12/SEC Challenge. But TCU is the only team from a power conference that Mississippi State has played at home this season. The Bulldogs strength of schedule sits at 293, according to WarrenNolan.com.
The other power conference teams that Mississippi State has played were South Florida and UNLV in the Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic at The Orleans. The Bulldogs beat South Florida then fell to UNLV.
Mississippi State’s last game and SEC opener was on the road against No. 14 Kentucky. The Bulldogs fell 85-63, but they held a 40-37 halftime lead.
With 10 wins this season, Mississippi State has already matched last year’s win total when they went 10-22. Among those 10 wins was a 73-67 win over Ole Miss in Starkville in what was Rick Ray’s signature win of his first season as head coach.
The last time Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in Starkville was in the 2008-09 season when they won 67-63. But for this matchup, Ole Miss is favored. The Rebels opened as a 1.5-point favorite according to VegasInsider.com.
Scoring without Henderson
Ole Miss will play without senior Marshall Henderson, as he sits out the final game of his suspension. In his absence against Auburn, Ole Miss got double-digit point performances from four different Rebels. Juniors Aaron Jones and LaDarius White had surprise offensive performances, combining for 22 points. Sophomore Derrick Millinghaus led the team with 16 points, but his backcourt mate, junior Jarvis Summers, had one of his least efficient performances.
Summers scored 14 points but shot just 6 of 17 from the field. His 11 missed field goals were a season-high, and the 17 shots was the second most he has had in a game. Summers attempted 19 shots in the season opening win over Troy – the other game Henderson missed due to suspension.
Rebounding Relief
The big problem all season for Ole Miss has been rebounding. The Rebels have been outrebounded in six straight games. Last time out, not only did Auburn outrebound Ole Miss, but the Tigers grabbed 19 offensive boards to Ole Miss’ 17 defensive boards. It is tough to win conference games when you allow your opponent to grab more than half of their own misses.
But the good news for Ole Miss is that Mississippi State ranks near the bottom of the SEC – with Ole Miss – in rebounding. Ole Miss is last in rebounding percentage, grabbing 47.8 percent of rebounds, but Mississippi State is nearly as bad, grabbing 48.2 percent of rebounds. This will be the easiest rebounding matchup for Ole Miss in conference play.
The Bulldogs do bring one excellent rebounder into the game in Gavin Ware. Ware is third in SEC with nine rebounds per game. The six-foot-nine forward is also second in the conference in individual rebounding percentage, grabbing 20.3 percent of rebounds.
Graphic By Tyler Bischoff | The Daily Mississippian
Player Matchups
For an individual matchup problem, Ole Miss could struggle defending Colin Borchert. Borchert went for 21 points on 7 of 10 shooting in the Bulldogs victory over Ole Miss last season. The six-foot-eight forward knocked down 3 of 4 three pointers and was able to drive from the perimeter. Guarding big men on the perimeter has been a problem for Ole Miss the last two seasons, and Borchert has already burned Ole Miss once.
This season, Borchert has attempted the most three pointers for Mississippi State, but he has only made 29 percent of them. Borchert plays outside more than inside, as 31.8 percent of his offensive possessions have been on spot ups, and just 9.8 percent have been on post ups.
Craig Sword is the go-to-guy for the Bulldogs. Sword leads the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game. The six-foot-three guard has the highest usage rate on the team and is the most efficient player for Mississippi State, along with Gavin Ware, who both score one point per possession, according to Synergy Sports. Ware shoots 58 percent from the floor, Sword 56 percent.
Andy Kennedy said he is hopeful that Anthony Perez will play. Perez missed the last game with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice.
The game will start at 3 p.m. and will be broadcasted on ESPNU from Starkville, Miss.
For continuing coverage of Ole Miss men’s basketball, follow @Tyler_RSR and @thedm_sports on Twitter.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
