Arkansas stuffed the Ole Miss running game. Other than the Alabama game, this was the worst rushing performance of the season; 103 yards is all Ole Miss could muster on 38 carries, or 2.71 yards per carry. It was the eighth time under Hugh Freeze that Ole Miss was held under 4 yards per carry. Ole Miss is 2-6 in those games, with both wins coming over Arkansas.
Simply, Ole Miss struggles to win if the running game is shut down. The two wins over Arkansas were pulled off because junior quarterback Bo Wallace had extremely efficient days. Wallace completed over 78 percent of his passes in both matchups, which are his two best marks in SEC games. In the other six games that Ole Miss has failed to rush for 4 yards per carry, Wallace’s completion percentage is 56 percent.
When the run game struggles, defenses don’t have to honor the run and can properly match up with the weapons Ole Miss has at receiver. Wallace and the passing game are at their peak when defenses are overly concerned with the run. There are big plays to be had off of play action if the defense bites on it, and a perfect example came when Wallace found senior wideout Ja-Mes Logan for a 75-yard touchdown.
Wallace faked a handoff to sophomore running back I’Tavius Mathers, which drew two Arkansas linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage.
Then, Wallace turned to freshman wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, who was getting ready for a screen pass. Wallace’s pump fake forced the third linebacker and a cornerback to commit to Treadwell, while Logan ran deep.
This allowed Logan to get one-on-one coverage down the field. Logan won that battle, and Wallace dropped a perfect pass into Logan’s arms.
Another key to this play was the protection Wallace received. No one is pressuring Wallace when he gets ready to throw.
Ole Miss cannot carry out fakes if the offensive line doesn’t provide ample time for Wallace. On Logan’s touchdown the offensive line, plus junior Nick Parker at tight end, made the play possible.
Ole Miss was fortunate that Arkansas was still worried about stopping the run despite the struggles the Rebels were having. Arkansas did a tremendous job of hitting Ole Miss running backs at the line of scrimmage and bottling up those potential big plays.
Of the 38 Rebel carries, two were sacks and two were kneel-downs. Eliminating those, Ole Miss had 34 carries, 14 of which went for 2 yards or less. One of those was a 1-yard touchdown from Barry Brunetti. That’s 41 percent of Ole Miss rushes that got stuffed.
That can’t happen against Missouri or Mississippi State.
Missouri is holding opponents to 3.33 yards per carry, which is second to Alabama in the SEC. Mississippi State is allowing 4.22 yards per carry, but it held Texas A&M and Auburn to their worst rushing games of the season, at 2.76 and 3.33 yards per carry, respectively.
The only SEC team that Arkansas has held to fewer yards per carry than Ole Miss is Florida. Arkansas posted its second-most tackles for loss against Ole Miss with seven. And their run defense has not been stellar all season; Arkansas is allowing the fourth-most yards per carry in the SEC, which makes the rushing struggles a bigger concern.
If Ole Miss gets hit at the line of scrimmage that often in the final two conference games and in turn rushes for fewer than 4 yards per carry, they’ll likely be finishing the season with two losses.
-Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu