Ole Miss heads to Western Kentucky (8-4) for their last nonconference road game. Ole Miss (8-3) is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 79-76 defeat at the hands of Mercer. The game will tip at 7 p.m. from Bowling Green, Ky., and can be seen on ESPN3.com.
Ole Miss is a two-point favorite, according to VegasInsider.com, but Western Kentucky hasn’t lost a home game this season.
Rebounding Troubles
Through 11 games, the major problem for Ole Miss has been rebounding, specifically keeping opponents off of the offensive boards. The Rebels are allowing 13.5 offensive rebounds per game, the most allowed in the SEC and 16th most in the country. For total rebounds, Ole Miss is allowing opponents to grab 40.3 per game, most in the SEC and 13th in the country.
Aaron Jones, who leads the team with 6.7 rebounds per game, is struggling with defensive rebounding, as he is grabbing just 13.1 percent of available defensive rebounds. For comparison, Murphy Holloway and Reggie Buckner had defensive rebounding percentages of 22.1 and 17.4, respectively, last season.
Demarco Cox is grabbing 16.5 percent of defensive rebounds, and Sebastian Saiz leads the team at 18.8 percent.
Part of Ole Miss’ rebounding woes have come from playing zone defense. Per Synergy Sports, Ole Miss has played zone 30.8 percent of its defensive possessions. But Andy Kenndy has to keep his team in a zone to hide some one-on-one deficiencies, especially when Marshall Henderson and Derrick Millinghaus play together.
But regardless of zone or man defense, Ole Miss does not have an above average rebounder anywhere on the roster.
Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers have recently received some roster reinforcements, as two of their top six players have just become eligible since the end of the semester. Both Trency Jackson and Chris Harrison-Docks transferred last December to Western Kentucky and have recently become eligible.
Both have played four games and are averaging over 10 points. Jackson, who has started all four games, transferred from Texas Tech, while Harrison-Docks came from Butler.
Beyond the two newcomers, T.J. Price leads the Hilltoppers with 16.3 points per game. Price is shooting 6.9 threes per game and knocking down 37 percent of them.
Forward George Fant is averaging 14.2 points and 1.4 blocks per game.
Ole Miss will have a size advantage, as Western Kentucky is likely to have no starters over six-foot-seven. Among their top nine players, the Hilltoppers have a taller player, six-foot-eleven Aleksej Rostov. They could turn to a seven footer, but Ben Lawson has played just 85 minutes this season.
Despite their lack of height, Western Kentucky has done a good job on the offensive boards. They are grabbing 12.5 offensive rebounds per game and 36.2 percent of available offensive rebounds, second best in the Sun Belt.
Due to their smaller size, the Hilltoppers have had a lot of shots swatted. Opponents are blocking 13.3 percent of their shots, 24th highest in the country. Ole Miss is blocking 19.1 percent of opponents’ shots, fifth best in the country.
Western Kentucky s shooting 22.3 three pointers per game, despite making just 31.5 percent of them. They also turn the ball over at a high rate, averaging 14.7 per game. They are turning it over on 18.6 percent of their possessions, 33rd highest in the country.
Ole Miss Notes
Offensively this season, Ole Miss has excelled in transition, on spot ups and in isolation play types, per Synergy Sports. The Rebels lead the SEC in all three categories in efficiency; they are 10th in the country in isolation efficiency.
Where Ole Miss has struggled is with their big guys scoring efficiently. On offensive rebounds, post ups and passes to the roll man off of the pick-and-roll, Ole Miss is one of the worst three teams in the SEC in efficiency.
But the big concern for Ole Miss’ specific play type efficiency is off of screens. The Rebels are scoring .74 points per possession off of screens, worst in the SEC. Since this is Marshall Henderson’s number one way of getting open, Ole Miss has had the most opportunities off screens in the SEC.
Last season, Ole Miss scored 1.06 points per possession off screens, best in the SEC. Henderson scored 1.12 points per possession off screens. He was the eighth most efficient player in the country off of screens. He also had more possessions off of screens than any other player at 267.
But this season Henderson is averaging .71 points per possession off of screens. He’s knocked down 15 of 67 field goals after running off screens.
For continuing coverage of Ole Miss men’s basketball, follow @Tyler_RSR and @thedm_sports on Twitter.
— Tyler Bischoff
tfbischo@go.olemiss.edu
