Creighton’s Doug McDermott shoots over Providence’s Kadeem Batts during a game in the finals of the Big East Conference March 15 at Madison Square Garden in New York.
With the NCAA basketball tournament beginning tonight, students can put the finishing touches on their brackets with the hopes of creating the perfect bracket and obtaining monetary success or bragging rights among their friends.
Students employ many different strategies, ranging from experts’ analyses to emotional attachment to a favorite team. Here is my take on this year’s Final Four.
In the East Region, I have the Big 12 Tournament champions, Iowa State. Offensively, Iowa State has altered its strategy in line with the trend among many NBA teams: They have eliminated long 2-point jumpers.
Long twos have about the same degree of difficulty as threes, but they are worth one less point. According to ShotAnalytics.com, only 8.5 percent of Iowa State’s shots have been long twos. The Cyclones shot 52 percent on threes in the Big 12 tournament. If that continues they’ll be in the Final Four.
For the toughest region, the Midwest, Wichita State will remain undefeated long enough to reach the Final Four. Last year Louisville, the eventual champion, was the only team in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. This year two teams achieved that statistic, Wichita State and Louisville. A key for the Shockers will be getting to the free-throw line. They attempt 25.8 free throws per game and make 73 percent of them.
Out of the West, Arizona and its top-rated defense will reign victorious. The Wildcats are No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona is fourth in the country in total rebounding percentage, led by Aaron Gordon’s 7.8 boards per game. That statistic will help put Arizona in the national title game.
The team that will be cutting down the nets in Arlington will be the Florida Gators. The Florida defense is right up there with Arizona’s in efficiency, but Arizona is 118th in opponents’ turnover percentage, while the Gators are 19th.
Florida traps all over the floor and picks up well in a full court press. The best way to beat this defense is to knock down threes. But even when teams get Florida out of its trap, the Gators’ defense can still lock offenses down one on one. The defense and Michael Frazier’s 46 percent 3-point shot should give Florida the title.
This year’s player to watch is Doug McDermott. McDermott is one of the most efficient offensive players in NCAA history. He ranks in the top 15 percent of efficiency in six different offensive play types, per Synergy Sports. He’s in the top 25 percent in two more. He’s phenomenal in the post, in cutting to the basket and in spotting up for three or rolling to the hoop after setting a ball screen. He’s a fun player to watch. If there are basketball gods, they will allow McDermott and Creighton to meet Florida in the national title game. Watching McDermott deal with Florida doubling him in the post or with chasing him around the 3-point line would be as good as college basketball gets.
