Political pundits can never get enough speculation when it comes to presidential politics. Honestly, neither can I. The 2014 midterms are months away but few can get their minds off the 2016 presidential election. It seems like just yesterday in 2008 when then Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were dueling for the Democratic nomination, and Sen. John McCain surprised the nation as he captured the Republican nomination. It won’t be long and candidates will start exploring possible presidential campaigns; that begs the question: who’s going to run?
The 2016 analysis on the Republican side is a little more complicated. There’s no clear front-runner but quite a few strong candidates. From my perspective, the current favorite is Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, son of former Congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul. The younger Paul has several advantages over his Republican competitors. First, he (somewhat) identifies with the libertarian wing of the GOP. I say somewhat, because, he isn’t progressive on social issues, by any means. However, he does appeal to Libertarians by his opposition to drone usage and the Patriot Act, among other issues. Paul is articulate, quick on his feet, a frequent, loud critic of the Obama Administration and a darling of the Tea Party. Like his father, he has a strong, almost cult-like following. Unlike his father, people seem to take him seriously. Paul does, however, have a few obstacles to navigate if he chooses to make a presidential bid. He has repeatedly been accused of plagiarism and has previously written about his opposition to portions of the Civil Rights Act of 1965.
New Jersey Gov.Chris Christie is another Republican heavily considering a presidential bid. Christie has long been a favorite of the GOP, having been strongly encouraged to run in the 2012 election. Many Republicans —and even independents and Democrats — are drawn to Christie’s no-nonsense, tough guy persona. Recently though, Christie’s borderline bully personality has come back to haunt him in the “Bridgegate” scandal. Christie’s fondness for shouting down his opponents and stomping on his critics could turn off plenty of voters in a general election.
I think the dark horse on the Republican side — as of now — is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Walker gained fame (among Republicans) and notoriety among many others for taking on labor and unions at the state level. Walker faced a recall election after the controversy but defeated those efforts with good organization and a lot of outside funds.
The Democratic playing field all hinges upon former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As of now, Clinton is the absolute frontrunner among Democrats. During her tenure as Secretary of State, her popularity soared. Her favorability ratings were even high among Republicans. Clinton has a solid resume — she served as First Lady during her husband’s presidency, she was a senator from New York and just finished four years as the United States’ lead diplomat. However, Republicans will surely attack Clinton with accusations regarding her handling of the “Benghazi incident.” More surprisingly, Sen. Paul has even brought up the Monica Lewinsky scandal. The petty politics will continue.
If Clinton chooses to pass on another presidential run, the Democratic field will get interesting very quickly. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley will surely run. Many progressives have been longing for a presidential campaign from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but she has consistently ruled out that possibility.
The 2016 presidential election will undoubtedly be another horserace. The GOP selection process is going to get messy. Today it looks as if Paul is leading the pack, but politics change very quickly. Clinton is the woman to watch among the Democrats; if she runs, I think Democrats have a chance to keep the White House. If not, it looks like it’s going to be a tough race.
Sean Higgins is a junior political science major from Brookings, S.D.
