Illustration by Jake Thrasher
The 89th Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday night, and this year’s slew of nominees is stellar. From red carpet fashion to inspiring (or infuriating) acceptance speeches, it’s a night for the stars to shine and for us to admire their contributions.
Unfortunately, given the current political climate, it also means we can expect an indignant reaction sometime Monday from Facebook’s favorite blonde political commentator. You see, for Tomi Lahren and others, the Academy represents nothing more than Hollywood coastal elites engaging in another round of self-congratulatory navel gazing.
This is a gross over-simplification of who the people that make movies are. Yes, they are wealthy. Yes, they are overwhelmingly (though not uniformly) liberal. But they are not the out-of-touch silver spooners we assume they are.
They are artists. Some of them have come from the far corners of the globe to create meaningful films that both entertain and engage. Others have fought tooth and nail for their chance to express themselves and be heard. Still, others work behind the scenes on cinematography and sound mixing, receiving little recognition but fundamentally shaping the future of film.
The Oscars is their night, and as a cinema buff, it’s my night, too. So without further adieu, here are my predictions for the 89th Academy Awards:
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
This one is a no-brainer for me. Affleck’s lead performance in “Manchester by the Sea” had me shook for days. The only legitimate challenge I see to Affleck in “Manchester by the Sea” is from Denzel Washington in “Fences.” Still, I think Affleck ekes it out, and he deserves to.
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Emma Stone
Who Should Win: (Should Have Been Nominated): Amy Adams
“La La Land” is expected to dominate this year, in part because of a strong performance from the inimitable Emma Stone. Still, I think the award should have gone to another red head: Amy Adams. Her performance in “Arrival” turned an intellectual sci-fi movie into a deeply intimate study of humanity. It provided substance and heart to “Arrival” in a way Stone’s impressive singing just didn’t for “La La Land.”
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Lucas Hedges
Ali was fantastic in “Moonlight,” and I’m happy to see him finally getting recognized for the talent any “House of Cards” fan has known about since he first played the ruthless lobbyist Remy Danton. The reason I think Hedges should take it here is because of the outsized role he played in anchoring the tone of “Manchester by the Sea.” In truth, I’ll be satisfied no matter who wins, as long as it isn’t Michael Shannon. Ugh.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Octavia Spencer
Viola Davis is an absolute queen, but “Fences” just didn’t garner the level of public interest that “Hidden Figures” did. I think the Academy should take into account the box office success of the latter and hand this Alabama native a second Oscar.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle
This is one where I agree with the hype. If you’ve seen “La La Land,” you will agree with me. Without Chazelle, this movie would have faded into obscurity. With him, it garnered 14 nominations.
…..drumroll please……
Best Picture
Who Will Win: “La La Land”
Who Should Win: “Manchester by the Sea”
The Academy likes musicals, especially musicals about the trials and tribulations of fellow artists. “La La Land” is exceptional in that it remains inventive and original despite its rather hackneyed subject. Still, my two favorite movies this year were “Manchester by the Sea” and “Arrival,” with “La La Land” in third. “Manchester by the Sea” just can’t be beat in terms of raw emotional power, and I hope the Academy can see that.
And there we have it, folks. The awards will be on at 6 p.m. Sunday on ABC.
