Cochran (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
After months of persistent and controversial campaigning, six-term Mississippi Republican incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran and challenger Chris McDaniel are headed to a June 24 runoff election.
While the Republican primary election results were expected to be close, many people were surprised that McDaniel received more votes than Cochran, especially after last month’s scandal indirectly involving McDaniel and photos of Cochran’s wife.
Marvin King, associate professor of political science at The University of Mississippi, stated he believed Cochran would come out of the primary election victorious.
“Now that it’s going to a runoff, I have to admit, my perspective is that Chris McDaniel will probably win because his voters have more enthusiasm,” King said. “That matters in elections. The voters that are most motivated to turn out tend to turn out in higher numbers.”
Results from 100 percent of the state’s 1,832 precincts showed McDaniel with 155,040 votes, or 49.5 percent. Cochran had 153,654, or 49 percent. The third GOP candidate, Thomas Carey, had 4,789 votes, or 1.5 percent, a small amount of support but enough to prevent either of the two better-funded rivals from reaching the needed majority.
The vote count was slowed by the presence of a few thousand mailed-in ballots as well as provisional ballots cast by voters who lacked identification. They have five days to provide it and validate their votes. Beyond that, officials have until June 13 to complete their canvass of the vote. If they take that long, that would leave only 10 days before the run-off election.
McDaniel (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
In the next three weeks, Cochran and McDaniel are expected to continue vigorously campaigning while election officials sort through rarely used senate runoff rules and requirements.
“This will be really interesting to watch,” said Jonathan Winburn, associate professor of political science. “There are lots of questions as to campaign strategy and involvement of outside groups. Will the establishment Republican Party and groups put on the full court press for Cochran or stay out of it to avoid giving the Democrats anything to use in November? Plus they may not want to alienate McDaniel in case he wins, and then must work with him during the general election and then into the future.”
Winburn said he does expect local endorsements to step up and rally around Cochran. As for McDaniel, he expects to see more ads and more money from groups outside the state as he represents the last hope of the Tea Party to unseat an establishment Republican incumbent during the primary season.
“It’s almost as if we didn’t even have Tuesday, as if we didn’t have the election,” King said. “The funny part is, you’re going to see just as much advertising, yet the turn out will be even less at the runoff. It’s just hard to get people to come out and vote for the campaign.”
According to King, in the 2012 presidential election about 1.2 to 1.3 million Mississippians participated in the voting process, meaning about one million eligible voters chose not to vote. He believes that the vast majority of Mississippians are choosing to sit out on the primary election, waiting to cast their votes in the final senatorial election in November.
“Individuals who voted in the Democratic primary yesterday are ineligible, as far as I understand,” Winburn said. “While people who did not vote can vote in the runoff. I’m not sure if lower turnout favors either candidate, but mobilizing voters is always a concern for campaigns.”
