Ole Miss opened the season with a fourth-quarter win over Vanderbilt. They seemed to shake away the late-game demons that haunted the 2012 team, as they took the lead twice in the final quarter. But in the last two weeks, the Rebels have been trailing in the fourth quarter and have failed to put serious pressure on either Alabama or Auburn’s lead.
This season, junior quarterback Bo Wallace has led 12 fourth-quarter drives when Ole Miss was losing. Just three of those have resulted in Ole Miss scoring.
Wallace has been awful in the fourth quarter this season. He has completed just 30.6 percent of his passes in the final quarter this season. In the first three quarters of games, Wallace is completing 66.9 percent of his passes, which would be the best single-season mark in Ole Miss history.
He has picked up just six first downs through the air in the fourth. He is averaging 3.6 first downs per quarter in the first three frames, but only 1.2 first downs in the fourth. Just one of his nine passes for over 25 yards has come in the fourth, and just 10.6 percent of his passing yards have come in fourth.
Most importantly, he has only thrown one touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.
Wallace has been a great quarterback for Ole Miss. Only Eli Manning has had a better single season than Wallace did in 2012.
In 2012, there was no drop off in production in the fourth quarter from Wallace. He completed 62.5 percent of his passes and threw just one interception, compared to six touchdowns, in the fourth.
These struggles certainly don’t fall solely on Wallace. In the three games that Ole Miss was trailing in the fourth quarter, Wallace has been sacked six times, four times by Auburn. The offensive line has been exposed by Alabama and Auburn in the last two weeks, and that is one of the main struggles the entire offense is dealing with.
Wallace’s receivers have not been helping him out either. From its own 1-yard line, Ole Miss ran the same play three times in a row. Wallace looked to hit Donte Moncrief on a back shoulder fade, but each time Wallace threw the ball behind Moncrief, which the coaches said was due to Moncrief and Wallace not being on the same page.
While the coaching may be questioned, Wallace has to do a better job of executing that play. To not throw one catchable ball to your best receiver in a one-on-one situation is inexcusable, no matter who messed up the signal.
The breakdown of receiver targets in the fourth quarter is predictable. Against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Auburn, Moncrief has been targeted 11 times, Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram have seen five targets each, and Ja-Mes Logan and Vince Sanders have received two targets each.
Moncrief has only caught four of those 11 targets, while Treadwell and Engram combined to haul in five of their 10 targets.
Those are not efficient numbers when targeting your top three receivers. Now Ole Miss has experienced dropped passes, sacks and poor throws, so the blame can be spread around.
But the lack of targets to Logan, who has as many receptions this season as Engram, and the fact that senior running back Jeff Scott has not seen a pass come his way is concerning.
Again, play calling may be dictating some of these numbers, but it appears that Wallace is zoning in on just one or two receivers on each play. This may be necessary as Wallace was sacked four times on 18 drop backs against Auburn in the fourth quarter.
Wallace’s fourth-quarter numbers are an anomaly. Last season he was essentially the same quarterback each quarter, and in the first three quarters this season, he has been great. He has just struggled mightily in the fourth quarter this season, especially the last two weeks.
If Ole Miss plans on winning close games in the fourth quarter, these numbers have to improve. It isn’t all on Wallace. He needs the help of better offensive line play and play calling, but Wallace needs to step up.
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