Ole Miss lost control of their SEC West destiny last Saturday, but they are still very much alive in winning the SEC West – if they win out. Sure, they’d have to luck out and win a tiebreaker, but the teams that they most likely wind end up tied with are either A) still on the Rebels’ schedule, or B) would lose the tiebreaker to the Rebels.
The only team that the Rebels would lose a potential tiebreaker to would be the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas has LSU, Mississippi State, and Missouri left on their schedule.
Rebel fans are not going to like my next two sentences. This weekend, Ole Miss fans need to root for Mississippi State to beat Alabama. This weekend, Ole Miss fans need to root for LSU to beat Arkansas. Yes, I understand the hesitancy in rooting for LSU and Mississippi State. To be honest, it doesn’t seem fair that, after the heartbreaking loss Ole Miss fans endured last weekend, they have to now root for their arch rivals. That’s cruel.
The student section cheers on the Ole Miss Rebels at a recent football game. (Photo by: Marlee Crawford)
But they need to. If Mississippi State and LSU both win this weekend, Ole Miss controls their destiny again in the SEC West. Is that likely? I contend it’s more likely than what people want to believe.
In the three previous years, the week after Alabama played LSU they either lost or found themselves in dog fights.
In 2012, Johny Manziel marched the Aggies into Bryant-Denny the week after Alabama defeated LSU and came out victorious. In 2013, Mississippi State played Alabama to a 20-7 loss in a game that Dak Prescott missed due to injury. In 2014, Mississippi State played Alabama to a five-point loss in a game that decided the SEC West.
Would it shock anyone if Dak Prescott beat Alabama? It certainly wouldn’t shock me. A common theme in teams that defeat Alabama is that their quarterback is mobile.
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide team has lost to the following quarterbacks under Saban’s watch: Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Johny Manziel, Nick Marshall, Trevor Knight and Stephen Garcia. All guys that can run. Dak Prescott and Chad Kelly are clearly the best two quarterbacks in the SEC. Kelly was able to take his team into Bryant-Denny Stadium and defeat Alabama. I won’t be shocked on Saturday afternoon if Dak Prescott does the same thing.
The Rebels also need LSU to beat Arkansas, but that result isn’t as pressing. There are scenarios that would allow the Rebels to still win the SEC West if the Razorbacks win out. The Rebels will finish ahead of the Razorbacks in the standings if they win out as long as Alabama doesn’t fall victim to Auburn and Texas A&M doesn’t lose to the mighty Vanderbilt Commodores.
With that being said, it’d be best for the Rebels if they saw an LSU victory over the Razorbacks. That would guarantee that the Rebels would choose their own fate when it came to the SEC West.
Here comes the tricky part for the Rebels. They have to beat LSU. They have to beat Mississippi State.
While Ole Miss does admittedly always play LSU close, sans 2011, the outcome hasn’t come out in favor of the Rebels too often. The Rebels did take care of LSU the last time Les Miles came to Oxford on a last-second Andrew Ritter field goal.
If the Rebels were to beat LSU, they would have to win at Davis-Wade Stadium in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss is 3-9 in their last 12 in Starkville and have not won since Eli Manning’s 2003 team beat Mississippi State in Jackie Sherrill’s last game. The Rebels don’t have good fortune when it comes to Starkville, and will need to reverse this.
Also, let’s pretend for a second that Mississippi State does beat Alabama.
Let’s then pretend that Ole Miss defeats the Bayou Bengals. Let’s then pretend Mississippi State defeats Arkansas later that night. I know, I know, that sounds like Peter Pan and his imagination, but that brings us the all to real scenario of: An Egg Bowl SEC West Championship.
God bless us and this state if that happens.
